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大型军事模型: 军事大模型发展现状与算力基础设施需求分析

发布时间:2024-10-14 来源:http://www.quanyimoxing.com/

  随着深度学习技术的迅猛发展,大模型等生成式人工智能技术已经成为众多行业关注的焦点。这些新出现的技术具有一定的双重性,不仅为军事智能化提供了创新型的方案和更广阔的发展空间,同时也带来了新的挑战。例如,以ChatGPT 为代表的人工智能模型,由美国人工智能实验室开发,在意识形态领域可能存在被用于收集情报和散布反华言论的风险,因此可能被西方的某些敌对力量所利用。从技术发展的角度来看,美国军方已经开始探索基于这些大模型的军事应用,有可能因此增强其军事能力,对我国形势产生不利影响 [1]。本文深入探讨大模型在军事领域的应用,评估国内外主要军事大模型产品,分析其优劣势及对算力基础设施的需求,提出我国在军事大模型发展方面的策略与建议。

  With the rapid development of deep learning technology, generative artificial intelligence technologies such as large models have become the focus of attention in many industries. These emerging technologies have a certain duality, not only providing innovative solutions and broader development space for military intelligence, but also bringing new challenges. For example, the artificial intelligence model represented by ChatGPT, developed by the American artificial intelligence laboratory, may be used to collect intelligence and spread anti China remarks in the ideological field, so it may be used by some hostile forces in the West. From the perspective of technological development, the US military has begun exploring military applications based on these large models, which may enhance its military capabilities and have a negative impact on China's security situation. This article explores in depth the application of large models in the military field, evaluates major military large model products at home and abroad, analyzes their advantages and disadvantages, and their demand for computing infrastructure. It proposes strategies and suggestions for the development of military large models in China.

  大模型的概念

  The concept of large models

  大模型是指具有数千万甚百万亿个参数的深度学习或机器学习模型。大模型通过对包含海量高质量数据集的数据库进行复杂性建模,使用强大的计算能力估计模型参数,来找到数据之间的关系。以 ChatGPT 为例,其模型架构基于人工智能技术中的自然语言处理和深度学习技术生成,参数数量高达 1750 亿。通过预先训练一个庞大的数据集,它可以学习这些数据中的语言规则和模式。利用“人在回路”的方法进行优化,通过与用户的互动改进自身的反馈和输出内容,提供高度逼真的对话场景 [2]。

  A large model refers to a deep learning or machine learning model with millions or even trillions of parameters. Big models model the complexity of databases containing massive high-quality datasets, using powerful computing power to estimate model parameters and find relationships between data. Taking ChatGPT as an example, its model architecture is based on natural language processing and deep learning techniques in artificial intelligence, with a parameter count of up to 175 billion. By pre training a large dataset, it can learn language rules and patterns from this data. Using the "human in the loop" method for optimization, improving feedback and output content through interaction with users, providing highly realistic dialogue scenes.大模型的军事应用范围

  The military application scope of large models

  包括美国空军部长弗兰克·肯德尔在内的世界各地的军事们预测,大模型技术可以在战场上帮助完成任务并做出决策。尽管在高风险情况下依赖它们尚需时日,但人们普遍认为它们将不可避免地在战争中发挥作用,并可能在以下 6个关键领域发挥决定性作用 [3]。1. 信息收集与情报分析人工智能大模型完全改变了信息收集和情报分析的方法,它们利用了大量来自卫星图像、雷达信号和社交媒体的数据。大模型技术一方面可以凭借强大的语言分析能力实时提取情报信息,如新闻报道等开放源代码资讯;另一方面还能生成与战场态势快速融合的各类情报信息,减少处理海量数据的压力和分析偏差,能及时响应用户的不同需求并提供多样化的选择,缩短从资讯到情报的生成时间。大模型技术通过整合多源数据和运用深度学习算法,能够在战略决策中发挥关键作用,识别隐藏模式、异常行为和潜在威胁,帮助军队更好地理解和应对复杂的形势,提供对战场的理解。人工智能大模型可以通过实时分析和预测,发现关键的情报并提供给军方,帮助其做出正确决定 [4]。

  Military experts around the world, including US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, predict that big model technology can help complete missions and make decisions on the battlefield. Although relying on them in high-risk situations may take time, it is widely believed that they will inevitably play a role in war and may play a decisive role in the following six key areas. 1. Information collection and intelligence analysis: Artificial intelligence models have completely changed the methods of information collection and intelligence analysis, utilizing a large amount of data from satellite images, radar signals, and social media. On the one hand, big model technology can extract real-time intelligence information, such as open source information such as news reports, through its powerful language analysis capabilities; On the other hand, it can also generate various intelligence information that can quickly integrate with the battlefield situation, reduce the pressure and analysis bias of processing massive data, respond to different user needs in a timely manner, and provide diversified choices, shortening the time from information to intelligence generation. Big model technology can play a key role in strategic decision-making by integrating multi-source data and applying deep learning algorithms, efficiently identifying hidden patterns, abnormal behaviors, and potential threats, helping the military better understand and respond to complex security situations, and providing a comprehensive understanding of the battlefield. Artificial intelligence big models can discover key intelligence and provide it to the military through real-time analysis and prediction, helping them make the right decisions.

  2. 武器系统开发大模型技术能够通过提高软件开发的效率,从根本上加速武器系统的研发。在传统研发模式下,武器系统软件的研发需要编程人员长期开展协同工作。大模型技术拥有的自动生成代码能力使得非计算机人员也可以胜任一定的研发工作,进而大大缩短软件研发时间。此外,在武器系统生成过程中,大模型技术还可以通过生成机器人控制代码,实现对武器装备生产过程的精确控制,降低人力成本,提高研发效率。美军正积极开发具备不受人为干预,能提高作战精度、降低伤亡风险,并在复杂环境下扩展作战能力的人工智能大模型在自主武器系统领域的应用潜力 [5]。

  2. The large-scale model technology for weapon system development can fundamentally accelerate the development of weapon systems by improving the efficiency of software development. Under the traditional research and development model, the development of weapon system software requires long-term collaborative work by professional programmers. The automatic code generation capability possessed by big model technology enables non computer professionals to be competent in certain research and development work, thereby greatly reducing software development time. In addition, in the process of weapon system generation, large model technology can also achieve precise control of the weapon equipment production process by generating robot control codes, reducing labor costs and improving research and development efficiency. The US military is actively developing artificial intelligence models with the potential to improve combat accuracy, reduce casualty risks, and expand combat capabilities in complex environments without human intervention in the field of autonomous weapon systems.微信图片_20201116101748

  3. 军事训练与作战仿真大模型技术可以通过不断馈送训练数据、沉淀和消化前人及各参与单位的经验实现自动进化,使训练经验能在时间维度上纵向传承、在参与单位之间横向传递,并通过分析历史作战案例,提取训练要点,提高军队军事训练水平。同时,大模型技术还可以与智能任务规划系统相结合,将分析结果转化为特定的训练任务和场景。基于此,大模型技术可以通过对数据的不断吸收、分析和演变,实施有针对性的训练,不断提高军队军事训练效率。大模型技术与其他智能生成技术相结合将促进作战仿真的发展。作战仿真是为军事决策提供依据、提高军事训练水平、验证武器装备能力的重要技术,其核心是关键作战要素的仿真还原。传统的作战仿真建模过程通常需要与计算机方面的合作,才能实现军事构想的落地,军事人员往往难以独立构建虚拟战场。依靠大模型技术自动生成程序、文本、图像、视频甚模拟模型的能力,军事人员可根据军事需求,通过简单的人类语言描述,独立、灵活地构建作战模拟场景,显著提高作战模拟能力 [5]。

  3. Military training and combat simulation big model technology can achieve automatic evolution by continuously feeding training data, accumulating and digesting the experience of predecessors and participating units, so that training experience can be vertically inherited in the time dimension and horizontally transmitted between participating units. By analyzing historical combat cases, training points can be extracted to improve the military training level of the army. Meanwhile, big model technology can also be combined with intelligent task planning systems to transform analysis results into specific training tasks and scenarios. Based on this, big model technology can continuously absorb, analyze, and evolve data, implement targeted training, and continuously improve the efficiency of military training. The combination of big model technology and other intelligent generation technologies will promote the development of combat simulation. Combat simulation is an important technology that provides a basis for military decision-making, improves military training levels, and verifies weapon and equipment capabilities. Its core is the simulation and restoration of key combat elements. The traditional combat simulation modeling process usually requires collaboration with computer experts to achieve the implementation of military concepts, and military personnel often find it difficult to independently build virtual battlefields. By relying on large-scale modeling technology to automatically generate programs, text, images, videos, and even simulation models, military personnel can independently and flexibly construct combat simulation scenarios based on military needs through simple human language descriptions, significantly improving their combat simulation capabilities.

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